Comparison Of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model And Vector Error Correction Model Analysis On The Effect Of Some Macroeconomic Variables On Gdp In Nigeria

This research work employed Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Bound Test for co-integration with Vector Error Correction (VEC) Models estimation of long run short effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria. In order to achieve this, annual data GDP, Unemployment, Exchange, Interest rate from 1980-2017 The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) revealed that the variables are stationary at first difference .ARDL bound test decision whether accept or reject either hypotheses is inconclusive. Johansen confirmed existence relationship between variables. VECM estimate indicated there positive significant Exchange Unemployment GDP while had negative significance GDP.ARDL only GDP. ARDL among coefficient ECM(-1) a correct sign statistically 5% level which also system corrects its previous period speed adjustment by 46% per annum, it was interest . While VEC no any variable has not 12% annum,. models were stable forecasting, serial correlation, multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity residuals normally